All fish artwork in this presentation by Jan Porinchak

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1 All fish artwork in this presentation by Jan Porinchak
Updated Risk Assessment for Ponto-Caspian Fishes to the Great Lakes Are there more invasive fish on their way? Dr. Randal Snyder* Dr. Lyubov Burlakova* Dr. Alexander Karatayev* *Dept. of Biological Sciences, Buffalo State College David B MacNeill, NY Sea Grant, SUNY Oswego. All fish artwork in this presentation by Jan Porinchak

2 4-5 PC fish species with highest invasion risks to GL.
This Presentation: Summarize results: GL Invasion Risk Assessment of Ponto-Caspian fish (Snyder et al 2014)*. 10 PC fish species: pose invasion risks and severe impacts, if introduced to GL. 4-5 PC fish species with highest invasion risks to GL. Present (preliminary) findings: predicted habitat distribution of the highest risk PC species in Duluth Harbor. * Snyder, R.J., Burlakova, L.E., Karatayev, A.Y., MacNeill, D.B Updated invasion risk assessment for Ponto-Caspian fishes to the Great Lakes. Journal of Great Lakes Research: 40 (2014)

3 Source region of ~70% ballast AIS to GL
Snyder, Burlakova, Karatayev, MacNeill (2014)

4 The Process of Successful Invasions to Great Lakes
Can we predict the potential invasion success of species using risk assessment models? Uptake from Native Range Ballast Transport: ~65% AIS to GL (post 1959) Can species with broad salinity tolerances survive ballast transport after BWE? Introduction Establishment Range Expansion, Impacts

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6 Translated/compiled information for 42 PC fish species
This study: Translated/compiled information for 42 PC fish species Risk Assessment Model: Discriminant Analysis 28 PC fish: invasion risk to GL, if introduced. 10 species: pose adverse impacts to GL 5 species previously ID’d (Kolar and Lodge). 5 (additional) species ID’d in this study. The 10 species: 4 highest invasion risk; 4 moderate risk; 2 low risk for ballast transport. (based on salinity tolerances). 4 sp. highest invasion risk: > 28 ‰ max. salinity tolerance, across all life stages. Growth rates: size/age at maturity. Egg size/fecundity. Reproductive strategy Behavior. Temperature, salinity, habitat, diet. invasion history. Impact severity.

7 * Black Striped Pipefish Sygnathus abaster
Black Sea Silverside (Big Scale Sand Smelt) Atherina boyeri. * Newly identified in this study

8 * Caspian Sea Kilka Clupeonella (cultriventris) caspia.
Kilka/Black Sea Sprat Clupeonella cultriventris. Adult/juveniles: > 28 ‰ max salinity tolerance * Black Sea Shad Alosa maeotica. * Newly identified in this study All art work is copy written and may not be used or duplicated without permission from NY Sea Grant

9 Monkey Goby Neogobius fluviatilis
* Volga Dwarf Goby Hyrcanogobius bergi * Caspian Bighead Goby Ponticola (Neogobius) gorlap * Newly identified in this study All art work is copy written and not be used or duplicated without permission from NY Sea Grant

10 Eurasian Minnow Phoxinus phoxinus.
Eurasian or European Perch Perca fluviatilis All art work is copy written and may not be used or duplicated without permission from NY Sea Grant

11 The next steps: monitoring large GL ports
European Ports with significant shipping traffic to the Great Lakes Great Lakes ports at high risk from invasive Ponto-Caspian fishes Antwerp, Belgium Duluth, Minnesota Ghent, Belgium Superior, Wisconsin Rotterdam, Netherlands Green Bay, Wisconsin Bremen, Germany Milwaukee, Wisconsin Kotka, Finland Gary, Indiana St. Petersburg, Russia Chicago, Illinois Kaliningrad, Russia Toledo, Ohio Stettin, Poland Ashtabula, Ohio Klaipeda, Lithuania Sandusky, Ohio Ventspils, Latvia Buffalo, New York Oswego, New York Source: Snyder, Burlakova, Karatayev, (2014)

12 Predicted Invasive Fish Black Striped Pipefish
GL “indicator” fish with similar life requirements as predicted invaders: Can we use their distribution to predict where to look for invasive fish? Predicted Invasive Fish Indicator Species Monkey Goby Mottled Sculpin Log Perch Eurasian Ruffe* Round Goby * Sand Smelt Juvenile Gizzard Shad Brook Silversides Emerald Shiner Spottail Shiner Black Striped Pipefish Tube Nose Goby* Golden Shiners Brook Stickleback Madtom Bluegill Sunfish Source: Snyder, Burlakova, Karatayev 2014

13 Duluth-Superior Harbor
source: USEPA Are there new, high-risk invasive fish coming to North America? Dave MacNeill, NY Sea Grant USEPA

14 Predicted Distribution of Monkey Gobies in Duluth Harbor:
Habitat Match Indicator Species

15 Summary: 10 PC fish species: invasion risks to GL based on risk assessment model. All pose adverse ecological threats to GL. 4 species: (highest invasion risks: max salinity tolerance > 28 ‰ at all life stages. 1 species: (Black Sea Kilka -C. cultriventris) poses high invasion risk; only as adult/juveniles. These 4-5 species may survive ballast transport to GL after BWE. Next steps? Revise “watch lists”/habitat models for high risk species. Monitor preferred habitats of/presence of indicator species in GL. Develop eDNA tools for potential invasive species and indicator species. Integrate climate models with AIS risk assessments.

16 Большое спасибо! Пока! This research was supported by 2
Great Lakes Restoration Initiatives (GLRI) grants from the USEPA Пока! Большое спасибо!