UPDATE (10/4): AccuWeather issues latest 2023-24 winter forecast
A snowier winter than last year isn’t a high bar to clear. Only about half a foot.
But in the first forecasts for the 2023-24 winter, both the Farmers’ Almanac and the Old Farmer’s Almanac say to expect a much more seasonable season from last year’s bust.
The competing almanacs, which rely on secret formulas to derive their seasonal outlooks, both issue their winter forecasts in August, weeks or months before most others. Any prediction this far out is bound to draw some skepticism — take these forecasts how you will, but don’t say they didn’t give you plenty of time to prepare for the winter (well) ahead.
Farmers’ Almanac: ‘Brrr is back!’
The Farmers' Almanac forecasts a "frosty, flakey, slushy" winter 2023-24 for eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey. (Map courtesy Farmers' Almanac)
The first to issue a winter predication way back on Aug. 1, the Farmers’ Almanac puts eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey in the “frosty, flakey, slushy” zone for winter 2023-24.
A little more specifically, it says the I-95 corridor from Washington, D.C., to Boston will experience the opposite of last winter’s lack of wintry precipitation with “lots of rain/sleet and snowstorms to contend with.”
Even more specifically for the Lehigh Valley: December should see a dusting around Christmastime, January will be more cold than snowy, February will see decent snowfall, especially around Feb. 8 to 11, and winter will hang on in March with temperature swings and late snow. That’s according to Sandi Duncan, the almanac’s managing editor and resident of Washington Township, Warren County.
“It has to be better than last winter,” she told lehighvalleylive.com. “Well, I guess it depends if you like winter.”
Old Farmer’s Almanac: ‘Winter wonderland!’
The Old Farmer's Almanac forecasts a "mild, snowy" winter 2023-24 for eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Provided by The Old Farmer's Almanac
With the latest winter 2023-24 forecast issued Aug. 29, the Old Farmer’s Almanac says above-normal snowfall and average to below-average temperatures will be the overall norm for most of the country.
Eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey fall in the “mild, snowy” zone. For the Atlantic corridor and Appalachian regions, which cover most of the two states, the forecast says to watch for snowy spells in late December, late January, and mid-Feburary. A white Christmas may be possible only in the higher terrains. The coldest period will be from mid- to late January into mid-February.
How does last winter compare?
Chase Pearsall, of Easton, takes lunchtime walk through the snow on the SteelStacks campus in Southside Bethlehem during a winter storm on Jan. 25, 2023. It was the first significant snow of a weak 2022-23 winter.Steve Novak | For lehighvalleylive.com
The 2022-23 winter was one of the Lehigh Valley’s least-snowy on record. The first significant snowstorm didn’t arrive until late January, and the season only accumulated about 6 inches of snow at Lehigh Valley International Airport between Oct. 1 and April 30, according to the National Weather Service. Only the 2019-20 winter saw less in the last 50 years.
Expect more winter forecasts in the coming weeks. AccuWeather usually offers its seasonal outlook in September, followed by the Weather Channel and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in November.
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Steve Novak may be reached at snovak@lehighvalleylive.com.